Obstacles challenging the growth of EV: battery supply and infrastructure

26 March 2020

Over the coming weeks, we are hearing from Automotive Future Form founding partners, Craig Fraser and Malcolm Earp, who are considering the future of EV and where the automotive mobility is heading.  In our this, our third blog in the series, we continue look at some of the key obstacles challenging the growth of EV.

EV Battery Supply

Purchase price consideration, charge downtime and driving range are still major obstacles to wider up take of pure electric vehicles and there is a link in terms of the economics and supply of these vehicles to battery technology, production and availability.

While it is anticipated that the cost of producing batteries will reduce through the next 10 years the availability of the raw materials to make Lithium ion batteries is a challenge for the European brands. Up until recently the EU based OEMs have been slow to invest in battery making and to secure the supply of battery material Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel, enabling the Asian battery manufacturers to ring-fence materials, particularly Cobalt which makes up 18% of a Lithium-ion battery and where 64% of global deposits are in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

In the DRC, for example, China controls nearly 50% of mine supply and, 2018, accounted for closer to 90% of the production.

However recent announcements of battery manufacturing plans show Europe producing 17% of global EV batteries by 2029 whilst China continues to dominate with a forecast 69% of EV battery manufacturing in 2029 and North America at 8%.

Many in the battery industry are working on alternatives to the ubiquitous Lithium-ion battery and are experimenting with alternative chemistries like Sodium and Aluminium which have the advantage of more readily available raw materials reducing the environmental damage associated with the raw materials for Lithium batteries.

Battery architecture is also under development as current EV batteries consist of 100’s of pouch cells or 1,000’s of cylindrical batteries with the power gathered from each cell. Scientists are working on a more compact battery architecture known as bipolar battery architecture with a sandwich of multiple parallel plates with active material in between. This has the potential to double the energy by volume and could provide the extra EV energy storage we need for the future.

Lithium is a highly energetic element, and this enables high energy density for powerful EV batteries, but as the lightest element Lithium does have drawbacks, in its instability and propensity to combust.

Consequently, EV batteries need extensive battery management systems to heat up the individual battery cells when they are cold and cool them down when hot. This translates into extra weight and for example 49% of the weight of a Nissan Leaf battery is the battery management system.

The propensity to combust means that the EV battery is usually located within the ‘passenger safety zone’ of the vehicle, which means under the seats. This limits the flexibility of design and the preponderance of SUV EVs.

Battery manufacturers have a responsibility at end of life and recycling of Lithium batteries has proved to be complex and costly, and although some are destined to be repurposed for home / office storage, there is concern about safety and many jurisdictions are considering the requirement for lithium ion batteries to be housed out side buildings in a safety bunker.

Infrastructure/Energy

The Energy Savings Trust forecasts that by 2030 there could be 8-11 million hybrid or electric cars on UK roads and over 25 million by 2040. This would equate to about 80% of overall cars on the road at that time.

At present approximately one third of households in the UK do not have a driveway or garage and cannot install a home charge–point. Currently there are more than 25,000 charging points across the UK, and this will have to increase substantially as the demand increases.

The time to charge an electric car can take as little as 30 minutes to up to 12 hours dependent on the size of the battery and speed/power of charging point.

As on-street charging proliferates then the issue of ‘charge-point blocking’ will occur where the user overstays the charge point preventing others from using it. This is likely to be resolved by technology which will, like the parking meter, advise the driver through an app the expiry time to move the vehicle and levy a fine for overstaying.

The requirement for short charge down-time will lead to high power charging, and although fast chargers operating at 250kw there chargers and batteries being developed to charge at 1mw (1,000kw), with the prospect of charging the EV battery for 75 miles of range in 5 minutes.

To handle high power charging above 350kw cables need cooling and inductive charging leaks too much microwave energy to be safe. The favoured solution for the future is autonomous robotic charging, which also solves the issue of charging autonomous vehicles.

The Government must lead from the front and accelerate the number of charging points available.

Importantly they must also ensure the electric grid has the capacity to power the increasing demand in electric vehicles. It has been estimated that to charge potentially 10 million EVs on the road in 2030 will need between 11 GW and 20GW of extra capacity. However, smart charging and vehicle-to-grid technology means EVs will be able to help smooth electricity usage through the hours of the day, National Grid says. They will be able to charge mainly when demand is low and even feed back into the grid when demand is high.

National Grid says peak electricity demand could be increased by between 3-8 gigawatts (GW in 2030 (4-14%) and by 3-13GW in 2050 (6-22%). This is shown in the chart, below.

The investment in the infrastructure can’t be overstated and it will be as much about local power storage to cope with peaks of demand, as overall grid capacity.

Next in the series

Next week we will look at future mobility and buying changes so please check back soon.

To read more of our automotive related blog posts, please click here.

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