How accurate is your Budget Forecast Return?

The Budget Forecast Return (BFR) is required by the Department for Education (DfE) to better understand academy trust finances. The BFR is completed annually by each academy trust though an online portal and for 2026/27 will be expected to be completed by 31 August 2026.

The BFR for 2026 covers the following periods:

September 2024 to March 2025 and April 2025 to August 2025
September 2025 to March 2026 and April 2026 to August 2026
September 2026 to March 2027 and April 2027 to August 2027
Summary forecasts for September 2027 to August 2028
Summary forecasts for September 2028 to August 2029.

In order to complete the BFR the academy trust will need to be able to estimate their income and expenditure over the periods required for the return.

Income

For estimating income, trusts will need to be able to determine their funding rates and pupil number projections to calculate the expected amount of General Annual Grant (GAG) to be received as well as pupil premium and special educational needs funding.

Other income also needs to be included in the forecast and will include income from such areas as:

lettings
trading
catering
donations.

Expenditure

The majority of a trust’s expenditure is in the form of wage costs, which usually represents between 75% to 80% of a trust’s total expenditure. So, it is important to factor into budgetary estimates any expected salary increases and back dated pay awards.

In additional to wage costs, non pay expenditure should also be taken into account and would include:

operating lease commitments
service level agreements
contracts
utilities.

All expenditure should take account of expected inflationary pressures over the next few years.

Once the forecast income and expenditure have been calculated, it is important to determine the level of closing reserves and whether they are adequate for the needs of the trust.

A final review should be performed of the assumptions that underpin the BFR to determine whether the assumptions are realistic.

For example:

do pupil numbers align with revenue?
have expected increases in pay and pensions been included?

The next steps

If your trust requires any support or assistance with preparing your BFR for 2026/27 over the next few months, please contact your local UHY academy adviser who will be able to provide you with the help and guidance required.