I’ve got 2 views on this; one selfish, in so much of where I hope it will be, and one which I think will closer to reality, I make no apology that I love the industry for the simple fact I love cars!
I hope there will be the introduction of more alterative fuel vehicles. I know EV’s have covered some amazing ground over the last few years, but until the charging phase can happen to see a vehicle from empty to full in 5 - 10 minutes, and the availability of this facility is so widespread that I don’t have to ‘plan my day, journey or holiday’ then I’d still like to be able to use an alternative drivetrain using Hydrogen, synthetic fuels or whatever propulsion method much more intelligent people than me can develop.
Another hope is that the engineering wizards in some of the leading car manufacturers look back to the ground covered by the great motor technical engineers such as Colin Chapman or in more recent times Gordon Murray, and see what can be achieved using build techniques that lead to lighter cars. We seem to be on a perpetual spiral of making cars bigger, safer, heavier and then we need to increase the power to cope with the extra weight of these changes, the power then demands the need for bigger brakes, wider tyres and larger rims, and suddenly we have more drag and un-sprung mass, which negatively impacts efficiency, so we seek more power and so on. I know a Lotus Elise isn’t a car which can fit the transport needs of an entire population, but within the last 20 – 25 years we have seen popular car manufacturers develop lightweight special editions, the definition of less is more is very true, but when the average car journey in the UK is just 8.4 miles, I’m sure I could do that journey enjoyably in a Peugeot 205GTi 1.9, a car that weighs 860kg, can do more than 120mph and get to 62 mph in 7.8 seconds with a 130bhp engine or do I realty need a ‘zero emission’ Nissan Leaf, which weighs 1,580kg tops out at 89mph and can do the 0-62 dash in 7.9 seconds.
In closing, I need some serious convincing that the whole life environmental cost of an EV (from manufacturing to its end of life) is actually a progression over a modern efficient internal combustion engine in a car with a sensible kerb weight.
In reality I feel the EV transition will impact the allure of the motor trade quite significantly, with the ‘typical’ household having a white goods / white labelled equivalent of the average SUV or Family Hatch, and as a consequence the addictive nature of any Halo product such as an RS / GT / M / AMG derivatives will be lost to the majority of consumers, resulting in a two-tier market place, catering for the mainstream and the enthusiast (we’re not quite at the Mad Max scenario though).
The push towards ‘flexible ownership’ and subscription services will also appeal to certain segments of UK customers, and I can see the market shifting towards a small new car agency ‘box’ situated on a supermarket car park style footprint allowing customers to maintain a monthly rental and simply swap in and out of different derivatives depending on what they are requiring within their lifestyle at that moment.
The next steps
If you would like to discuss the topics raised in this blog in more detail, please contact Ian McMahon, or your usual UHY automotive adviser.
