2 August 2019
It has been a couple of years since I last took a look at progress towards a truly practical electric vehicle. A great deal has happened in the intervening period, and surprisingly, some ideas are more than a century old.
Carmakers under pressure
The pressure on carmakers to produce zero-emission vehicles continues to increase. Since 2009 the EU has set binding emission targets for manufacturers according to the average mass of their vehicles. From 2021, phased in from 2020, the EU fleet-wide average emission target for new cars will be 95 g CO2/km. Such measures have led to some astute moves, for example Fiat Chrysler have improved their chances of meeting the new targets by paying Tesla hundreds of millions of Euros for the right to include Tesla’s cars in their fleet.
Obstacles in the road
Tesla has been the subject of much negative publicity. It nevertheless produced 250,000 units last year. Putting this into context, however, there is still a long way to go. World-wide the number of internal combustion engine cars (ICE) produced was still fifty times more than the total of electric and hybrid cars. There remain substantial hurdles to surmount: the cost of a battery powertrain, though reducing, is still three times that of an ICE; the range of current electric vehicles for all practical purposes rarely exceeds 200 miles between charges; doubts over battery durability mean that second-hand values are low; recharging times are inconveniently long; and as yet the infrastructure required to keep EVs on the move is largely absent.
The game changer
In many ways, Tesla epitomised the early phase of modern EV development, the maverick engineer, lacking the experience or background of the typical carmaker, but determined to break new ground by throwing money at the challenge. The major development in the last two years has been the long-awaited determined entry into the market of the major international carmakers. This will be the game changer. Daimler (owner of the Mercedes brand) has committed €10 billion to its EQ range and stated its objective of its fleet being 20% electric by 2025. BMW is developing platforms (the car’s basic framework) that can accommodate both electric and ICE powertrains. A different path is being followed by Renault and Hyundai, who have committed to a dedicated electric only platform.
Perhaps more significant are the plans revealed by the world’s two largest vehicle manufacturers, Toyota and Volkswagen. The former appears to be about to put its hydrogen powered units aside in favour of EV development, and plans to have 10 new all-electric models by 2025. VW has set the most ambitious targets and intends to spend €30 billion to develop 70 new EV models by 2028 and manufacture 22 million EVs over the next 10 years. It also plans to build a factory at its Braunschweig site to develop and manufacture its own batteries. Its contribution to the charging infrastructure problem is a proposal to co-operate with BMW, Daimler and Ford to install 400 quick-charging stations along Europe’s main highways by the end of 2020.
Nevertheless, the switch to EVs remains an enormous challenge to the mainstream carmakers. Time will tell whether the best way forward is the Daimler model of designing platforms to accommodate both types of propulsion, or Renault’s adoption of the dedicated electric platform. Theorists who favour the latter point out that electric vehicles are much simpler and that electrifying traditional ICE platforms limits the space available for batteries and involves the use of powertrains which do not take full advantage of the efficiencies of electric motors.
A lesson from history
Some engineers think that it is time to learn a lesson from the past. In 1900 one-third of all cars were electric. In that year Ferdinand Porsche produced a battery-powered vehicle driven by two electric motors built into its front wheels. This eliminated the need for all the energy-sapping paraphernalia needed to connect the engine to the wheels. Even so, due to the cheapness and convenience of gasoline, Porsche’s invention, along with most other electric vehicles, was soon consigned to the scrapheap.
The concept of the motor-within-the-wheel assembly had a major drawback which is why it has even today not been taken up by the major manufacturers: it increased the unsprung weight of the car, thus adversely affecting handling and giving it an uncomfortable ride. Another snag was that it exposed the motor to damage from dirt, dust, and water. Indigo Technologies, a company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, claims to have developed an electrically powered wheel assembly that overcomes all these problems, doing away with many of the complexities that are intrinsic to the traditional vehicle: engines, differentials, drive shafts, brake-pipes, and shock absorbers. If the concept proves viable it will revolutionise car design, making cars much lighter and allowing more space both for passengers and fuel-cells, but it will also make unnecessary a very large proportion of the car-industry’s productive capacity, with major consequences for capital investment and jobs. Environmentalists may be getting impatient but perhaps we should be relieved that such radical developments take years to reach fruition, allowing time for society and industry to adapt.
If you have any views on this subject why not share them with me or any other member of the UHY automotive sector team.
